The features of the new iPhone 13 and Apple Watch presented earlier this week by Apple had been anticipated as always in recent months by respected analysts, technology sites and newspapers, but many of their forecasts have turned out to be inaccurate and in some cases completely wrong. Overall in recent years the advances had almost always proved accurate, to the point of suggesting that Apple was no longer able to maintain the high levels of secrecy imposed – sometimes with a certain obsession – by Steve Jobs. His successor, Tim Cook, seemed to be less interested in the problem, but in the last year things have changed, with Apple's lawyers becoming much more aggressive to protect secrets, to the detriment of those who had built a certain reputation. online, revealing details about the company's products and plans in advance.
Information about Apple, one of the richest companies in the world, and the devices it manufactures are in great demand by the media, analysts, by marketers and tech enthusiasts. Those involved in providing advances usually get a large following, with all the resulting opportunities in terms of notoriety and earnings.
Sources are usually employees who work for Apple, or people who work for the numerous companies that produce the company's devices (mostly in China) or that make the accessories and therefore receive the designs of the new models in advance.
The large amount of people involved in the production of an iPhone or a Mac means that there is a large pool from which to try to draw. With the right sources you can get photos of components, details on certain features (such as screen size), blueprints, drawings and sometimes parts of the new devices themselves. As some surveys had reported, the high demand has caused a sort of black market to form around the pieces of future iPhones, which are sold and exchanged online at considerable figures, even if their authenticity cannot always be confirmed by those who sells them or from those who buy them.
Among those who anticipate Apple's projects is Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst considered among the most reliable in the sector, thanks to his numerous knowledge within of the company's production chain in Asia.
His forecasts are usually accurate, but in the case of the event on September 14th, they turned out to be less reliable than usual. Kuo had announced that the company would unveil a new model of AirPods wireless earphones. The new model should have had a slightly different design than the current one, with the two earbuds being shorter. Apple hasn't presented anything of the sort, however, nor provided any clues about a possible future presentation of a new model of this type (which cannot be completely ruled out).
Kuo had also been among the first to write that the new iPhone 13 would have a system for making phone calls and sending SMS via a satellite connection, to be used in circumstances where that cell phone does not work. Bloomberg had resumed the anticipation, assuming that the new feature could only be used to send emergency messages. During the presentation on Tuesday, Apple did not announce anything of the kind, and on the technical specifications page of the various iPhone 13 models presented there are no references to antennas to communicate via satellite.
Mark Gurman, a Journalist who deals with Apple and often provides reliable advances, wrote as Kuo that the company would introduce new AirPods. Gurman had also released another prediction circulated a lot online in the months before the Apple event and picked up by many newspapers (even the Post had cited it in an article that repeated the partly incorrect predictions) according to which the new iPhone 13 would have had an always-on screen, thanks to the adoption of a new type of display (LTPO) that consumes less energy. The hypothesis, which had already been disseminated by others earlier this year, however, was not reflected on Tuesday, when Apple did not make any reference to a function of this type.
Gurman had also announced that the new Apple Watch would have marked a profound discontinuity with the previous models: the new version should have had sharp edges and no longer rounded, with some changes also for the keys on the watch case. Computer processing was circulating to show the new models, but at its own event Apple showed watches completely different from the forecast and more in line with the design of the previous versions.
Even if it was not there 'unique in making predictions of this kind, Gurman has received several criticisms in recent days, especially after the publication of a tweet in which he claimed to have provided many other correct advances on the Apple event.
Proud of pre-event news today. All iPhone design and cam features (Cinematic Video, Photographic Styles, and ProRes) plus 120hz, right on the money for Watch screens (even if body was a little curvier than expected) and faces, and iPad design turned out well, if ahead of time.
– Mark Gurman (@markgurman) September 14, 2021
Despite errors on some key features of the new products , Kuo and Gurman in the days before the presentation had however correctly predicted the arrival of a new iPad mini, other features of the screens of the new iPhone 13 (including the presence of a smaller plug for the camera in their upper part) and the new features added for shooting videos.
The correct previews however show how difficult it is for Apple to keep the secret around new products. Controlling leaks from factories that manufacture iPhones and other devices is very difficult, and even more so when it becomes necessary to monitor hundreds of accessory manufacturers.
To try to keep within acceptable limits the problem, Apple has begun to implement more aggressive policies. For example, his lawyers recently sent a letter of formal notice to a Chinese user who promoted the sale of iPhone prototypes apparently stolen from the company. The document called for an immediate cessation of the acquisition, promotion and sale of Apple devices and asked for details of their provenance also to be provided: “You have disclosed without authorization a large amount of information related to products not yet released by Apple, what which constituted a clear and deliberate violation of Apple's trade secrets. “
It is not clear how many of these letters have been sent and to whom in the last few months, but it seems that they have affected several other users . However, the warnings seem to concern those who try to sell prototypes through social networks, while there is no news on requests against those who spread the advances. However, the latter are often based on information obtained through the analysis of prototypes or individual components: their reduced circulation could make the activities of those who have transformed the search for advances into a job more difficult.
To better keep its secrets, Apple also appears to be anonymously spreading fake news about its businesses and products, in order to muddy the waters. At the beginning of the year, for example, information was circulated on an event that the company should have held in March, and which never took place. The hypothesis is that the news had been circulated by the same company to divert attention from other activities.
In the past, Apple had already shown that it did not tolerate the circulation of its prototypes.
In April 2010, the US technology site Gizmodo announced that it had purchased a prototype of an iPhone 4 for $ 5,000, which it then used to illustrate its features to its readers. At Apple's request, Gizmodo returned the prototype, while the home of the journalist who had dealt with it was searched by the police, who had also proceeded to confiscate all of his computers and other electronic devices.
Steve Jobs later said that several people had advised him to give up and not pursue further legal steps: “But I thought about it for a long time, and in the end I concluded that the worst that can happen to us as we get older and influential both to renounce our values ». However, the investigation was then suspended by the authorities and there were no repercussions, although Apple received criticism for its stance towards the press.
In his ten years as CEO of Apple, Tim Cook has sought to maintain the same policies related to secrecy, but motivated them with more friendly tones: “We have become more transparent about what we do, but not about the products: we try to keep secrets as we have always done with our products, even if it is always more difficult to do. People like surprises, we don't have many of them in our lives anymore “.
